A Longer Race Benefits Obama
By David Broder
WASHINGTON -- Heading into Tuesday's unprecedented day of voting in nearly two dozen states, a degree of order is finally emerging in the dramatic races for the presidential nominations of both parties.
Public opinion and leadership support are finding their way to the same destinations, pointing to a clear favorite and a single viable alternative in each race.
John McCain has the easiest path remaining to the Republican nomination, with Mitt Romney needing some kind of dramatic breakthrough Tuesday to keep his hopes of an upset alive.
On the Democratic side, the battle is more even, but the advantage has shifted back to Barack Obama -- thanks to a growing but largely unremarked tendency among Democratic leaders to reject Hillary Clinton and her husband, the former president.
The New York senator could still emerge from the "Tsunami Tuesday" voting with the overall lead in delegates, but she is unlikely to be able to come close to clinching the nomination. And the longer the race goes on, the better the chances that Obama will ultimately prevail, as more elected Democratic officials and candidates come to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November.
As the race has moved from contests in small states such as Iowa and New Hampshire to the national dimension of Tuesday's voting, the role of the endorsements and leadership testimonials has increased. The candidates simply lack the time and resources to make personal appeals to very many voters.
Had McCain not invested that personal time in New Hampshire, with more than 100 town meetings where he argued for the correctness of his views on the Iraq War, he could not have reversed the summertime disaster that overtook his campaign, when he ran out of money and lost most of his senior staff.
But after turning back Romney in New Hampshire, the Arizona senator picked up significant establishment backing in South Carolina and Florida -- the hard-core Republican states where he had to show his credentials. He campaigned in South Carolina flanked by Tom Coburn and Jack Kemp, icons of social and fiscal conservatism, and won Florida thanks to last-minute endorsements from Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez.
Now, with defeated Rudy Giuliani adding his voice to the chorus of endorsements, and with Mike Huckabee remaining in the race to challenge Romney from the religious right, McCain appears poised to lock up the nomination.
Unelected conservative ideologues -- Rush Limbaugh and George Will -- can mutter in frustration, but Republican politicians recognize what was written here as long ago as last Dec. 2: "If the Republican Party really wanted to hold on to the White House in 2009 ... it would grit its teeth, swallow its doubts and nominate a ticket of John McCain for president and Mike Huckabee for vice president -- and president-in-waiting."
The Democratic race remains harder to handicap, in part because Clinton already has demonstrated her resilience by fighting uphill battles to prevail in New Hampshire and Nevada and because she retains formidable alliances and organizational strengths.
But the last two weeks have seen a remarkable shift of establishment opinion against her and against the prospect of placing the party's 2008 chances in the hands of her husband, Bill Clinton.
The prominence of his role in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the mean-spiritedness of his attacks on Obama, stunned many Democrats. Clinton's behavior underlined the warning raised in this column before Iowa, by a prominent veteran of the Clinton administration, that the prospect of two presidents both named Clinton sharing a single White House would be a huge problem for the Democrats in November if she is the nominee.
The negatives on the Clintons have brought much support to Obama, most notably that of Ted Kennedy, the most prestigious figure in the Democratic establishment in Washington. But it is also Obama's own appeal that is being talked about across the country from Massachusetts to Arizona by the younger generation of governors, senators and representatives who share with him an eagerness to "turn the page" on the battles of the past.
Obama is not inevitable, but the longer the race continues, the greater that hunger. And the growing recognition of McCain's appeal to independents also works in Obama's favor.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/a_longer_race_benefits_obama.html
Thursday, January 31, 2008
A Longer Race Benefits Obama
Friday, January 18, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
Hillary Out?
The fact that this is even being talked about is incredible...stay tuned.
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TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGNS
Mon Jan 07 2008 09:46:28 ET
Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!
"She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."
Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out."
"Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.
MORE
Key players in Clinton's inner circle are said to be split. James Carville is urging her to fight it out through at least February and Super Tuesday, where she has a shot at thwarting Barack Obama in a big state.
"She did not work this hard to get out after one state! All this talk is nonsense," said one top adviser.
But others close to the former first lady now see no possible road to victory, sources claim.
Developing...
[The dramatic reversal of fortunes has left the media establishment stunned and racing to keep up with fast-moving changes.
In its final poll before Iowa, CNN showed Clinton with a two-point lead over Obama. Editorial decisions were being made based on an understanding the Democratic primary race would be close, explained a network executive.]
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhn.htm
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
More and More...Obama Is Changing the Game
I've tried to position this blog right in the middle of what I see as a rapidly changing new model for US politics. Its really fascinating to watch how this continues to unfold across the political landscape.
MJ
"In Politics, the Web Changes Everything
By David Frum
Posted:
Monday, April 9, 2007
ARTICLES
National Post (Canada)
Publication Date: April 7, 2007
Resident Fellow David Frum
Hillary Clinton had everything lined up to reprise the mighty George W. Bush
nomination campaign of 1998-99.
She would use the vast donor network
inherited from her husband to raise a $100-million campaign fund. This vast
treasury would deter potential rivals from entering the race. And should anybody
in the party murmur against this buying of the nomination, she would field a
team of party leaders to warn: 'Those who are with us now will be remembered
when we win. And those who are against--they will also be remembered when we
win.'
It worked for Bush. But it's not working for Clinton." [more]
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.25921/pub_detail.asp
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Obama and Hillary
Most of my fascination with Obama, is his effect on Hillary.
I couldn't resist sharing this photo after I came across it. ;-)
Monday, March 5, 2007
Friday, March 2, 2007
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Senator Barack Obama in Cleveland, OH 2-26-07
Great photo from the grassroots media.
Photo by IvorK
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ivork/
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Barack Obama Hosted By Sen. Barbara Boxer In San Francisco
A very well done video...well worth the time to watch.
Las Vegas 2/18/07
A great picture that you will probably not see in the newspaper,taken by a member of the audience at the rally.
