Super Tuesday: Is This Hillary's Last Hurrah?

Super Tuesday: Is This Hillary's Last Hurrah?
February 3, 2008 8:04 AM
Kareem: Sky hooks for Obama

by Roger L. Simon
If either party's nominating process reaches a conclusion on Super Tuesday, conventional wisdom has it that it will be the Republicans with McCain sweeping the Northeast and California.

But a surprise may be brewing on the Democratic side. Obama fever is clearly growing.
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The latest California Field poll shows McCain up eight, but more unexpectedly shows Obama within two points of Clinton in the nation's most populous state. Other polls are less favorable to Barack, but it's clear the younger man is surging.

Hillary is lucky the primary is this Tuesday. Another week and she could be toast. In the long run, she could be anyway.

What does this mean for the Republicans? Nothing good. Running against Hillary would not be difficult for them. The country is experiencing Clinton fatigue and what with recent revelations like Bill's nuclear finagling in Kazakhstan (probably just the tip of an endless iceberg) Hillary presents them with an easy target and likely victory.

Not so Obama. He is the "cool kid" on the block and getting cooler. Everyone wants to be part of him. "Yes, We Can" - a new video by Black-Eyed Peas featuring Scarlett Johansson and Kareem Abdul Jabbar, among others – although based on the usual campaign rhetoric, radiates an optimism about a future with and through Obama, which we haven't seen since Reagan, ironically.

Furthermore, Obama's lack of record or experience, while obviously something any concerned voter should be concerned about, may be an advantage for him. There's less to shoot at.

In a head-to-head, Obama's glamour could be lethal. McCain would look like Barack's crotchety old father and Romney—even worse—a starchy, clueless businessman (in Huckabee's words, "the guy who fires you"). I don't have to tell you, the facts are not operative here. Images rule.

This was writ large by Frank Luntz's focus group after the recent California debate at the Kodak Theater. Unlike the pundits, the people in Luntz's group overwhelmingly declared Obama the winner, although he had spoken largely in generalities throughout the entire debate. Hillary, the wonk, had focused on the details of her programs. Who wants to hear about them? Again ironically, they just contribute to Clinton fatigue.

Like it or not, people are more interested in being inspired.

So, on Super Tuesday, all eyes will be on whether McCain can administer a knockout blow on the Republican side.

But the spotlight should be shared equally with the Democrats. Hillary, even more than McCain, needs to win with some deciseveness on Tuesday. Otherwise, she will be on the wrong side of a juggernaut.

http://pajamasmedia.com/2008/02/super_tuesday_is_this_hillarys.php

More and More...Obama Is Changing the Game

I've tried to position this blog right in the middle of what I see as a rapidly changing new model for US politics. Its really fascinating to watch how this continues to unfold across the political landscape.

MJ

"In Politics, the Web Changes Everything

By David Frum
Posted:
Monday, April 9, 2007

ARTICLES
National Post (Canada)
Publication Date: April 7, 2007


Resident Fellow David Frum
Hillary Clinton had everything lined up to reprise the mighty George W. Bush
nomination campaign of 1998-99.
She would use the vast donor network
inherited from her husband to raise a $100-million campaign fund. This vast
treasury would deter potential rivals from entering the race. And should anybody
in the party murmur against this buying of the nomination, she would field a
team of party leaders to warn: 'Those who are with us now will be remembered
when we win. And those who are against--they will also be remembered when we
win.'
It worked for Bush. But it's not working for Clinton." [more]

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.25921/pub_detail.asp

Obama Raises 25 Million !

Obama Shows His Strength in a Fund-Raising Feat on Par With Clinton
By
JEFF ZELENY and PATRICK HEALY
Published: April 5, 2007
The Obama campaign
announced it had raised $25 million only days after Senator Hillary Rodham
Clinton said her campaign had raisied $26 million.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/05/us/politics/05obama.html?ex=1333425600&en=a06fe28b1bcaec39&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Obama Fundraising Notes and Analysis

As I said nearly a week ago...Obama is right in the mix with fundraising so far. Here is more confirmation of that. MJ
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Obama, not Hillary, won the 1st quarter fundraising derby

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/04/obama_not_hillary_won_the_1st.html

Behind The Numbers: 83,531 Gave To Obama, 50,000 Gave To
Hillary

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/04/02/behind-the-numbers-8353_n_44779.html

Hillary Clinton Doomsday Machine....Enjoy!

$$$ It's All About the Money...Like it or Not

Obama is predicted to come in around 20 Million. That puts him right in the mix with a good showing so far. MJ
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Fundraising race heats as deadline looms

By JIM
KUHNHENN The Associated Press 3/26/2007

http://www.cumberlink.com/articles/2007/03/26/ap/politics/d8o42bo80.txt

Better Keep an Eye On This Story

Lets see how this plays out. It could be nothing...or it could turn into a real head ache if more people have things to say about Obama's book, and his past. MJ

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The not-so-simple story of Barack Obama's youth The glare of the presidential campaign is shining on people previously hidden behind pseudonyms in Obama's memoirs. One of them, a convicted felon, demanded money from the campaign. Or else.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-070323obama-youth,0,3268648.story?coll=chi-homepagepromo440-fea

The Grassroots Media Wins Round One?

More information and background on the so called "Hillary 1984" video.I find the whole story fascinating and will continue to follow it here.

This story is at the epicenter of the changing face of U.S.politics,campaign tactics and media, converging with the internet. MJ
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Who is the person behind the Clinton attack ad?

"considering Hillary Clinton's biggest video has only received 12,000 views on YouTube, I'd say the grassroots has won the first round."

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/03/19/BAGSFONU1A16.DTL

Guerilla Campaign Video Attacks Hillary

Which is more impressive? If this came from the Obama campaign itself... or if it came from his supporters? Either way...once again the most fascinating stories revolve around Obama and Hillary.

Take the time to read the whole article and watch the video...highly recommended!--------------------------------------------------------------

Political video smack-down

'Hillary 1984': Unauthorized Internet video for Obama converts Apple Computer's '84 Super Bowl spot into a generational howl against Clinton's presidential bid

It may be the most stunning and creative attack ad yet for a 2008 presidential candidate -- one experts say could represent a watershed moment in 21st century media and political advertising.
Yet the groundbreaking 74-second pitch for Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, which remixes the classic "1984" ad that introduced Apple computers to the world, is not on cable or network TV, but on the Internet.
[More]
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/03/17/BAGPKONDHM3.DTL

Has Hillary blown her lead?

More on Hillary blowing her lead...more good stuff from Dick Morris.

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Hillary's Mistakes Fuel Obama's Surge
Friday , March 16, 2007

By Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,259150,00.html

FNC
In the aftermath of Hillary’s two big mistakes — attacking Obama over the remarks of David Geffen and competing with the Illinois Senator for African American votes at Selma, Ala. — Obama has now closed in on Hillary dramatically, moving within seven points of the frontrunner, in the latest Time Magazine poll. Nationally, Hillary’s lead has collapsed to 30-23, with Edwards running a distant third.

Hillary’s fall — Time had her ahead of Obama by 40-21 in January — has been animated by a switch of black voters among whom she had been leading by three to one. But that was before she made the colossal mistake of attacking Obama for the comments of his financial supporter David Geffen. Obama had been wrestling with the dilemma of how to attract black voters without embracing civil rights leaders like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. Then Hillary, led by her consultant Mark Penn, decided to unload on Obama, blaming him for Geffen’s remarks which criticized her husband’s pardons and his personal “recklessness.” Faced with a white attacking a black candidate, African Americans rallied in droves to support Obama, closing the gap between the two Democratic front-runners to eleven points.

The geniuses running Hillary’s campaign made another big goof in sending both Clintons to Selma, Ala. to horn in on the celebration of the 42nd anniversary of the voting rights march. It was Obama’s day and his speech, lecturing African Americans to abandon their “anti-intellectual” attitudes, contrasted sharply with Hillary’s pandering, pat, and scripted rhetoric. When the former First Lady tried to say that the march for voting rights for blacks made her candidacy possible, she was laughable and her imitation of a southern drawl fueled jokes all over the country.

Now, in the wake of Selma, Obama has tied with Hillary at 36-36 among black voters in the Time poll. This elimination of Hillary’s lead among African Americans has pushed Obama to within four points of her in the South and ahead of her in the West.

Even as the poll was being released, Hillary was making a third mistake. She told the New York Times on Tuesday, March 13 that she would keep troops in Iraq if she were elected. “I think we have a remaining military as well as political mission [in Iraq] trying to contain the extremists,” she said. While indicating that she would have troops avoid policing urban areas, she said they would continue to “provide logistical support, air support, training support” and would be deployed “between Baghdad and Kirkuk ready to “continue to provide support, if called for, for the Iraqis.”

This new twist on her Iraq position comes a few days after she said she would vote to attach a rider to the appropriations bill funding the war calling for full withdrawal by March of 2008. Hillary characterizes this as a “goal,” not a legal requirement.

But her new comments supporting continued deployment will open up a huge gap between herself and Obama on the war. The Illinois Senator has always opposed the war in Iraq and wants to force a complete withdrawal for all American forces by the spring of 2008. This position puts him on a collision course with Hillary, a dangerous posture for Mrs. Clinton among a Democratic electorate that backs total withdrawal by 77-18 in the latest FOX News survey.

Why did Hillary make these three mistakes opening the door for Obama to close the gap?

Her attack on Obama was mapped out, according to columnist Bob Novack, in a conference call headed by her consultant Mark Penn. But, what drove the decision was Bill Clinton’s vanity and temper. Stung by Geffen’s criticism, the former president demanded that Hillary’s campaign answer the attacks — a key and crucial mistake.

Her pathetic attempt to appeal to blacks in Selma was probably the result of panic at the consequences of her first mistake, an overreaction that did her more harm than good.

But why the double-talk on Iraq? Hillary may be feeling over confident of her lead in the primaries, and wants to lay the basis for tacking back to the center in the general election. If that’s the case, she needs to reread the polls.

The more likely explanation is that she is in the thrall of the generals and security experts who parade before the Senate Armed Services Committee on which she serves, and she finds that she cannot ignore what they are telling her. Just as she followed health care guru Ira Magaziner off a cliff in 1994, just as she pushed her reform legislation until it cost her party control of Congress, she now hues to the military line that we need to stay in Iraq. Of course, she was wrong on health care, but is right on Iraq. But that doesn’t matter much. She will pay dearly for her apostasy in the Democratic primaries to come.

Hillary has now blown her easy front-runner status and will have to contend with a resurgent Obama all way until the February 5 national primary.



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Dick Morris served as Bill Clinton's political consultant for 20 years, guiding him to a successful reelection in 1996. He is the author of New York Times bestsellers Because He Could, Rewriting History (both with Eileen McGann), Off with Their Heads, and Behind the Oval Office, and the Washington Post bestseller Power Plays.



Copyright Eileen McGann and Dick Morris 2006. To obtain free copies of all of the columns and newsletters by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann for non-commercial use, please sign up at www.dickmorris.com.

More on Obama raised as a Muslim...

Is this going to be an issue or not?

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama: Raised a Muslim After All
DAVID FRUM'S DIARY
... or so reports the Los Angeles Times.

At first, Obama aides directed withering fire at Fox News after it reported that the senator had attended Islamic schools in Indonesia.

"Obama's campaign aides have emphasized his strong Christian beliefs and downplayed any Islamic connection. The candidate was raised "in a secular household in Indonesia by his stepfather and mother," his chief spokesman, Robert Gibbs, said in a statement in January after false reports began circulating that Obama had attended a radical madrasa, or Koranic school, as a child.

"To be clear, Senator Obama has never been a Muslim, was not raised a Muslim, and is a committed Christian who attends the United Church of Christ in Chicago," Gibbs' Jan. 24 statement said."

Recently, however, they have amended their early account.

"In a statement to The Times on Wednesday, the campaign offered slightly different wording, saying: "Obama has never been a practicing Muslim." The statement added that as a child, Obama had spent time in the neighborhood's Islamic center."

And the documentary record goes a little further still.

"His former Roman Catholic and Muslim teachers, along with two people who were identified by Obama's grade-school teacher as childhood friends, say Obama was registered by his family as a Muslim at both of the schools he attended.

That registration meant that during the third and fourth grades, Obama learned about Islam for two hours each week in religion class.

The childhood friends say Obama sometimes went to Friday prayers at the local mosque."

Obama's family and campaign organization play down his religious associations.

But some supporters have responded with eager enthusiasm. As blogger Anya Kamenetz puts it on the Huffington Post today:

"Is there anyone else who thinks it's awesome that Obama grew up Muslim?"

Good question! Anyone? Anyone? Bueller - anyone?

**

Update: Having checked around the liberal blogworld a little this morning, I think I can sum up the reaction as: "It's true. So what?" A fair response. And it raises the question: Why doesn't the campaign own up too? Might it be ... could it be ... that they are becoming a little ... cynical?

***

Some on the right wonder whether Islamists would not regard Obama as an apostate liable to the death penalty.

But they are overlooking the political potential. Obama's supporters like to talk about how their man might change the map of American politics. OK, now imagine this: Obama speaking to a white Baptist church in, say, Arkansas ... and holding all those Bible-believing conservative Republicans spellbound with the inspiring story of how he left Islam behind to discover the true loving faith of Jesus Christ! Talk about changing the map!

http://frum.nationalreview.com/

A look at the 08 Campaign

A pretty good analysis and look at the 08 campaign ...so far.

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Thusfar, Not Much Inspiring in the '08 Campaign

This is how the '08 Presidential primary race is shaping up on the Democratic side: Obama is running for President, Hillary is running against Obama and Edwards is running against Hillary. All tactics, no strategy, much like the Iraq War.

Almost every move Hillary has made seems designed to blunt Obama, who thus is setting the agenda and tone of the campaign.

Barack got into the race, and Hillary's timetable to enter accelerated. Obama goes to Selma to commemorate the famous march, and Hillary gets herself invited so as not to give Barack the stage alone. Then, she gets Bill to join her so as to compete for star power wattage.

Most recently, Obama has been compared, by others, to John F. Kennedy: young, bright, eloquent, charismatic, rock-star. So what does Hillary do in New Hampshire? She compares herself to JFK. A bit Nixon-esque---pronounced a statement he made himself as the Nixon corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Usually, such comparisons are left to others to note, and comment upon. Hillary is smarter and more politically savvy than all this, but she appears at this early stage to be in the grip of her handlers.

[more]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/thusfar-not-much-inspiri_b_43236.html

Obama and Hillary

Obama and Hilary, originally uploaded by nata2.

Most of my fascination with Obama, is his effect on Hillary.

I couldn't resist sharing this photo after I came across it. ;-)

Giuliani, McCain lead Clinton, Obama in new poll

I have learned to take any poll with a grain of salt. They are too often used for manipulation and to sell newspapers. But we'll keep an eye on them anyway...just for a general idea of how the race shapes up. It's really much too early...

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Giuliani, McCain lead Clinton, Obama in new pollBLOOMBERG NEWS

http://www.amny.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-uspoll0310,0,4045181.story?coll=ny-islanders-print

Obama’s selma bounce by Dick Morris

A good read and some insightful commentary by Dick Morris.
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Obama’s selma bounce
By Dick Morris
March 07, 2007
Will March 4, 2007, the 42nd anniversary of the Selma, Ala., march for voting rights, propel Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) presidential candidacy with the same force that Sept. 11, 2004 energized George W. Bush’s pursuit of a second term? The day clearly belonged to Obama, despite the efforts of both Hillary and Bill to turn it into Clinton Day. Obama’s speech was inspirational, challenging African-Americans to assume responsibility and participate in the political process. By contrast, Hillary’s speech, replete with a phony Southern drawl — the same one she used to effect in Arkansas — smacked of pandering. But Hillary’s attempt to paint the events in Selma as seminal in her ability to run for president seemed forced, artificial, and contrived. She appeared to have confused the efforts of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. with those of Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton and to have mixed up the 15th and 19th amendments to the Constitution.


But Obama’s speech seared right through to the root of the American conscience. The spectacle of an African-American running for president and speaking on the site of a 42-year-old battlefield where the very right of blacks to vote was at issue could not but inspire everyone who watched it. The effect on the polls may be significant.

[More]

http://thehill.com/dick-morris/obamas-selma-bounce-2007-03-06.html

2008 Power Rankings: March 6, 2007

A cool idea from PoliticalDerby.com

I like the way the race is broken down into a short but sweet visual summary. We'll be keeping an eye on this in the future.
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PoliticalDerby.com Releases Latest 2008 White House Power Rankings _____________________________________________________________
FAIRFAX, Va., March 6 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- PoliticalDerby.comtoday released the latest edition of the 2008 White House Power Rankings.Rudy Giuliani remains in the top spot among Republicans. Mitt Romney andJohn McCain are tied in the second spot. Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrichare numbers four and five, respectively.Hillary Clinton clings to the top spot among Democrats with BarackObama closing the gap and John Edwards fading into a distant third. BillRichardson is fourth, and Al Gore, fresh off his Oscar win, has vaultedfrom 10th to 5th.For the complete rankings from one to ten in both parties, visit:http://politicalderby.com/powerrankings.

Obama Video March 2,2007

Full Interview: Obama's RunABC News' Claire Shipman on hope, history and the "testosterone" factor in 2008.
ABC News' Claire Shipman on hope, history and the "testosterone" factor in 2008.


Barack Obama's PastorRev. Dr. Jeremiah Wright, Sr. Pastor at Illinois Senator's church the the president of Chile who only has been inundated with coverage about his Mormon faith LDS in light of this last night we reported on the controversial teachings of Democratic candidate Rocco Bouma Chicago based
Rev. Dr. Jeremiah Wright, Sr. Pastor at Illinois Senator's church the the president of Chile who only has been inundated with...

The Latest Obama Video and News

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Barack Obama: Full Speed Ahead Is this the beginning of the end for lesser-known Democratic candidates?

Nightline Online Obama on Bush's New Plan

Senator Barack Obama in Cleveland, OH 2-26-07

, originally uploaded by IvorK.

Great photo from the grassroots media.

Photo by IvorK
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ivork/

Barack Obama Hosted By Sen. Barbara Boxer In San Francisco

A very well done video...well worth the time to watch.